Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
147 Liberty 32.4%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 8 11 - 5 +1.0      -2.3 240 +3.3 84 56.4 347 0.0 1 0.0 1
170 Lipscomb 23.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 9 11 - 5 -0.6      +0.3 162 -0.9 197 70.3 133 0.0 1 0.0 1
217 NJIT 6.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 9 0 - 0 -3.9      -3.3 271 -0.6 189 66.5 245 0.0 1 0.0 1
218 North Florida 12.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 9 - 7 -3.9      +1.9 127 -5.8 323 71.7 97 0.0 1 0.0 1
241 Florida Gulf Coast 9.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 11 9 - 7 -5.0      -4.4 294 -0.6 186 65.2 271 0.0 1 0.0 1
250 Stetson 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 12 8 - 8 -5.5      -2.6 247 -2.9 258 59.7 340 0.0 1 0.0 1
277 North Alabama 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 10 8 - 8 -6.6      -3.7 278 -2.9 259 71.9 93 0.0 1 0.0 1
292 Bellarmine 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 7 - 9 -7.4      -13.4 345 +5.9 31 69.3 161 0.0 1 0.0 1
297 Jacksonville 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 13 7 - 9 -7.8      -4.9 305 -2.9 256 65.9 255 0.0 1 0.0 1
342 Kennesaw St. 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 18 3 - 13 -16.6      -10.7 341 -5.9 324 69.0 172 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Liberty 2.4 41.8 21.6 13.5 9.2 6.5 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.1
Lipscomb 2.9 31.7 21.2 15.6 11.1 8.0 5.7 3.9 2.2 0.4
NJIT 9.9 13.1 86.9
North Florida 4.1 11.9 16.1 16.2 14.8 13.5 11.6 8.8 5.6 1.5
Florida Gulf Coast 4.4 10.0 13.8 15.5 14.9 14.1 11.9 10.1 7.2 2.6
Stetson 4.8 9.2 11.1 12.6 12.9 13.8 13.9 12.7 10.2 3.7
North Alabama 5.0 7.5 9.9 11.6 12.3 13.4 14.1 13.1 12.3 5.7
Bellarmine 5.4 4.6 7.8 10.5 12.7 13.7 15.1 15.4 14.0 6.2
Jacksonville 5.5 5.4 7.6 9.5 10.9 13.1 14.5 15.5 15.3 8.2
Kennesaw St. 8.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.1 5.3 10.5 21.4 57.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Liberty 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.1 8.9 10.8 13.2 14.7 15.2 12.0 7.7 3.2
Lipscomb 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.8 6.0 7.7 10.5 12.3 13.4 13.4 12.4 9.0 5.2 2.2
NJIT 0 - 16 100.0
North Florida 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.7 8.5 10.9 12.2 13.5 13.0 11.4 8.7 5.4 3.1 1.2 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.4 4.3 7.0 9.2 11.3 12.7 13.0 12.5 10.0 7.8 4.5 2.3 0.8 0.2
Stetson 8 - 8 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.1 8.9 11.3 11.8 12.5 11.1 10.3 8.2 6.3 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.2
North Alabama 8 - 8 0.3 1.3 3.1 5.3 7.2 9.5 11.4 11.8 11.8 10.6 9.8 7.4 5.3 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.2
Bellarmine 7 - 9 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.7 8.5 10.9 12.5 12.7 12.2 11.1 8.5 5.9 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0
Jacksonville 7 - 9 0.6 2.2 4.1 6.8 8.8 11.2 12.2 12.3 11.3 9.5 7.8 5.4 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1
Kennesaw St. 3 - 13 11.6 18.2 19.8 16.8 12.8 9.0 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 41.8% 30.9 9.0 1.7 0.2 0.0
Lipscomb 31.7% 22.2 7.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
NJIT
North Florida 11.9% 7.0 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 10.0% 5.7 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
Stetson 9.2% 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 7.5% 4.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 4.6% 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 5.4% 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 32.4% 32.4% 0.1% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 5.0 7.2 8.5 9.4 67.6 0.1%
Lipscomb 23.8% 23.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.0 4.9 6.7 7.9 76.2 0.1%
NJIT 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.1 93.3 0.1%
North Florida 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 6.7 87.8 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.4 5.5 90.2 0.0%
Stetson 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 5.4 91.2 0.0%
North Alabama 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Jacksonville 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 3.6 94.8 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 32.4% 5.0% 30.4% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 23.8% 4.6% 21.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 6.7% 1.3% 6.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 12.2% 4.4% 10.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.8% 3.6% 8.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 8.8% 3.8% 7.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 5.2% 2.5% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 88.0% 0.9 12.0 87.9 0.1
2nd Round 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0